US Commission report sees multi-pronged aggression from China

The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, was created by the United States Congress in October 2000 with the legislative mandate to monitor, investigate, and submit to Congress an annual report on the national security implications of the bilateral trade and economic relationship between the United States and the People’s Republic of China.

It recently issued a Staff Report entitled, China’s Efforts to Counter U.S. Forward Presence in the Asia Pacific (March 15, 2026).

The report observes, "in addition to kinetic A2/AD capabilities, Beijing also appears to be pursuing preemptive options well before a conflict, with the intention of eroding the United States’ strategic position, freedom of action, and operational space in the region."

The report surmises, "China is managing its security interests in the Asia Pacific through a combination of engagement, coercion, and alliance splitting."

• Engagement: China is, economically, diplomatically and through military to military contacts, engaging countries the United States considers to be strategically important (i.e., for supporting military operations through economic and military-to-military cooperation) in an effort to complicate relationships between the United States and those strategically important countries.
• Coercion: China has used both veiled threats concerning the use of force as well as economic punishment in efforts to shape the behavior of countries on its periphery. China is likewise applying coercion through the implied threat of the use of force in its maritime disputes. While China currently is relying on civilian maritime law enforcement agencies to assert its claims in disputed seas, Beijing is also using the PLA Navy in a protective monitoring capacity for the China Coast Guard and maritime militia units.
• Alliance Splitting: Beijing is engaging in attempts to split alliances and exploit seams in relationships between and among the United States and its partners and allies in the Asia Pacific.

It notes, "DOD’s 2011 annual report to Congress on China’s military states that in 2003, China’s leaders endorsed the three warfares concept, “reflecting China’s recognition that as a global actor, it will benefit from learning to effectively utilize the tools of public opinion, messaging, and influence.” The report goes on to note that “China likely hopes to employ these three concepts in unison, particularly during the early stages of a crisis, as they have a tendency to bolster one another." It describes the three warfares as psychological warfare, media warfare and legal warfare, which “uses international and domestic law to claim the legal high ground or assert Chinese interests."

Of particular interest in the Mariana and Caroline Islands is the effect this multi-pronged aggression is having in the region.

Guam is a critical location for the forward deployment of air, naval, missile defense, and ground forces for any contingency operation the United States may need to respond to within the Asia Pacific region. Furthermore, the U.S. military has shifted much of its aviation training to Guam, and will develop training areas in Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI). Beijing is concerned the redeployment of U.S. troops to Guam and the development of a training range in the CNMI is directed against China. While Beijing is concerned about the U.S. military footprint, China’s tourism industry has been acquiring hotels and apartment buildings in Palau and hotel and casino development projects in Saipan, as well as establishing Chinese-operated tour organizations in the CNMI. There is some concern within the CNMI business community that the presence of U.S. military training on three of the islands in the chain could discourage investment by the Chinese-backed tourism-casino industry, as investors behind the casinos have indicated they may pull out if plans for the training range progress. This has resulted in the CNMI considering legal action to contest the Pentagon’s plan to develop the range.”

Chinese investments in real estate in the CNMI and the presence of Chinese workers, tourists, or businesspeople could provide cover for clandestine surveillance of U.S. facilities, training, logistics, or troop rotations. The United States can expect continued Chinese investments in the region if Beijing perceives that some amount of access, influence, and information acquisition is being achieved.