Thursday, April 30, 2015

Call for Pentagon and Congressional leaders to address “growing imbalances within the defense budget"

38 signatories from 15 think tanks and universities, including the American Enterprise Institute, the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, and the Center for Strategic and International Studies have signed an open letter calling for Pentagon and Congressional leaders to address “growing imbalances within the defense budget that threaten the health and viability of America’s military power.”

Citing "strong bipartisan consensus", excerpts from the letter assert:
Too much of the defense budget is currently consumed by institutional inefficiencies, some of which are mandated by law. This is leaving a smaller share of the budget to pay for the manning, training, and equipping of our armed forces that make the US military without peer. Now is the time to begin the hard but necessary work to close excess bases, right-size the civilian workforce, and give future service members more value in a modern pay and benefits package.

As the US military shrinks, it must reduce its inventory of physical infrastructure. Smaller budgets can no longer support paying for the operation of unnecessary facilities. Estimates remain constant that the Pentagon retains over 20 percent excess capacity here in the US. Meanwhile, the military services have arguably drawn down too far in overseas basing. Members of Congress in both parties should partner with the Pentagon to identify the true scale of excess capacity and better match the Department's vast network of facilities to its smaller, more forward-engaged force.

The size and structure of the federal defense civilian workforce is another area in need of urgent examination and restructuring that policymakers in both branches have been reluctant to tackle. From 2001 to 2014, the active duty military shrank by nearly 3 percent. Yet over the same timeframe the number of civilian defense employees grew by 10 percent to 756,000. This workforce rose another 3 percent in just the past year. While these professionals support essential missions of the Defense Department, their growth since 2001 has created a workforce that is now out of proportion to need.

At the same time, the Department of Defense has grown a civilian contractor workforce of nearly the same size, an estimated 700,000.

The Government Accountability Office, for instance, has consistently criticized the Pentagon for failing to collect the necessary data to optimize its workforce-including assessing the most efficient balance between contractors, civilians, and military personnel. Collecting this information is essential in order to bring the defense civilian and contractor workforces into balance with the size of our uniformed military. But the Department should not stop there. In order to right-size the defense workforce, DoD should undertake a systematic effort to de-layer headquarters organizations across the Department, reducing needless bureaucracy and optimizing spans of control to enable better performance at lower cost.

Finally, it is time for a comprehensive modernization of the military compensation system. The nation's approach to military compensation and benefits has changed little since the 1970s, even as the demographics of our force have shifted to a greater proportion of married, college-educated service members with dependents and even as new approaches in areas like health care have created the possibility of delivering better outcomes at lower cost.

In recent years, Pentagon leaders have proposed many incremental changes to military compensation to reduce the rate of growth, but Congress has yet to act in a holistic manner. Congress should, at a minimum, commit to bringing the commission's thoughtful recommendations to a vote in both chambers this year. It should also examine and implement the best proposals for reforming the DoD health care system to deliver better outcomes for service members, retirees, and their families at less cost to the American taxpayer.

Those of us who have joined together in support of these efforts may differ on many issues, but we are unified in our agreement on the need to pursue long-overdue defense and institutional reforms. Excess facilities, an oversized civilian workforce, and outdated military compensation and benefits models all jeopardize the combat power these investments are intended to support.
Again, the letter is available at this link: http://www.cnas.org/sites/default/files/Defense_letter_april29.pdf


Hattip to CNAS for bringing this to our attention.

Japan, USA tighten alliance

US, Japan Announce Expansion of Defense Ties
The United States and Japan will expand defense ties over cyberspace and regional security threats as they finalize the first revision of security guidelines between the two allies since 1997, defense chiefs from both nations said Wednesday.

The new guidelines would give the allies more flexibility to address regional threats, such as North Korea’s nuclear weapons and missile programs and tensions over territorial integrity; however, specifics on how the new guidelines will be tactically employed remain unclear.

Defense Secretary Ash Carter and Japanese Defense Minister Gen Nakatani also reaffirmed opposition to the use of coercion and force in the East and South China seas, where several nations hold competing claims on island territories. The defense officials also confirmed plans between Japan and the Pentagon to set up a new working group concerning space and cyberspace, Nakatani said.

Carter and Nakatani also discussed the ongoing realignment of U.S. forces in Okinawa, where protesters have escalated demonstrations against the move of a U.S. Marine air field from its urban location in Futenma to Henoko, a rural part of the island.

“We reaffirmed that relocation to Camp Schwab is the only solution to avoid the continued use of Futenma air field,” Nakatani said. The military recently transferred the 128-acre West Futenma housing area to Japan, conducts Osprey missions off-island and still plans to transfer thousands of Marines to Guam to ease the military burden on Okinawa, Carter said Wednesday.
Excerpts of remarks at Abe-Obama joint press conference
Obama: Specifically, we first talked about transforming our security alliance. For the first time in nearly two decades, we’ve updated the guidelines for our defense cooperation. Together, our forces will be more flexible and better prepared to cooperate on a range of challenges.

Our new guidelines complement our effort to realign U.S. forces across the region, including on Okinawa, in order to lessen the impact of our bases on local communities. And I reaffirmed our commitment to move forward with the relocation of Marines from Okinawa to Guam. I want to reiterate that our treaty commitment to Japan’s security is absolute, and that Article 5 covers all territories under Japan’s administration, including Senkaku Islands.

We reviewed the progress our teams have made towards the Trans-Pacific Partnership. I know that Prime Minister Abe, like me, is deeply committed to getting this done, and I’m confident we will.

Abe: Today, we turned a new page in the history of the U.S.-Japan alliance, which exceeds half a century. This is a Japan-U.S. alliance within the context of the world. Japan and the United States are partners who share basic values, such as freedom, democracy, and basic human rights, and the rule of law. The U.S.-Japan alliance characterized by the firmness of its bond is now indispensable to the peace and stability of not only the Asia Pacific but to the world.

We are united in our resoluteness in opposing unilateral attempts to change the status quo in whatever form. Any dispute should be resolved peacefully based on international law and not through coercion or intimidation. Japan welcomes the United States policy of rebalancing, which emphasizes the Asia-Pacific. And President Obama has expressed his support for Japan’s principle of proactive contribution to peace.

We have reaffirmed our resolve to steadily move forward with the realignment of the U.S. forces in Japan. The dangers arising from the Futenma Air Station being surrounded by housing and schools should be eliminated by relocation to Henoko as soon as possible.

We will continue to cooperate to lead the TPP talks through its last phase.

Wednesday, April 15, 2015

The U.S. Rebalance to Asia: A Status Report

The Center for a New American Security (CNAS) and the Guam-U.S.-Asia Security Alliance (GUASA) cordially invite you to a public, lunch briefing on Capitol Hill on:

The U.S. Rebalance to Asia:
A Status Report

Featuring Keynote Remarks by:

Senator John McCain
Chairman, Senate Armed Services Committee

Kelly E. Magsamen
Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Asian and Pacific Security Affairs
U.S. Department of Defense
**Remarks will be Off-the-Record**

Representative Matthew Salmon
Chairman, Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific
House Foreign Affairs Committee

Representative Madeleine Z. Bordallo
Delegate from the U.S. Territory of Guam

Panel Discussions on:

Strategic Issues in Maritime Asia

Dr. Patrick M. Cronin
Senior Advisor and Senior Director, Asia-Pacific Security Program
Center for a New American Security

Shawn Brimley
Executive Vice President and Director of Studies
Center for a New American Security

Dr. Ely Ratner
Senior Fellow and Deputy Director, Asia-Pacific Security Program
Center for a New American Security

Bryan McGrath
Deputy Director, Center for American Seapower
Hudson Institute

Dr. Thomas Mahnken
Director of the Advanced Strategy Program
Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies

U.S. Presence, Force Posture, and the Role of the Marianas

Dr. Jerry Hendrix
Senior Fellow and Director, Defense Strategies and Assessments Program
Center for a New American Security

Dr. Thomas Bickford
Asia Analyst, China Studies Division
Center for Naval Analyses

Shirley Kan
Formerly of the Congressional Research Service (CRS)

Paul Giarra
President of Global Strategies & Transformation

Juan Carlos Benitez
Principal of Guam-US-Asia Security Alliance


12:00 p.m. – 4:00 p.m.
Thursday, April 16, 2015
2172 Rayburn House Office Building
Washington, D.C.

SEE Speaker and panelist bios are below.

Building on the Secretary of Defense’s recent Asia-Pacific tour, the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) Asia-Pacific Security Program and the Guam-US-Asia Security Alliance (GUASA) are pleased to announce a special public briefing on U.S. strategy and policy for the Asia-Pacific region. The briefing will provide stand-alone remarks by members of the Office of the Secretary of Defense and Congress.

In addition, two panels will offer brief analyses of key strategy, regional force posture, and other relevant issues. The first panel, “Strategic Issues in Maritime Asia,” will cover a breadth of topics including China’s reclamation in the South China Sea, countering maritime coercion, the role of allies and partners, the U.S. Navy’s new report on Chinese maritime power, and the U.S. Department of Defense’s Third Offset Strategy. The second panel, “U.S. Presence, Force Posture, and the Role of the Marianas,” will provide an update on U.S. regional military presence, the strategic purpose of U.S. presence and forces, the role of U.S. territory in engaging allies and partners, and the issues facing the planned buildup in the Marianas.

The panels will also highlight the recently completed CNAS report on cost-imposition strategies in maritime Asia and a newly completed GUASA report on contributions of the Marianas to U.S. rebalance policy.


Tentative Agenda:
12pm Lunch
12:30pm Panel 1: Strategic Issues in Maritime Asia
1:30pm Keynote Remarks by Kelley Magsamen
1:50pm Keynote Remarks by Senator John McCain
2:05pm Keynote Remarks by Representative Matthew Salmon
2:30pm Keynote Remarks by Representative Madeleine Bordallo
2:50pm Panel 2: U.S. Presence, Force Posture, and the Role of the Marianas
3:50pm Closing Remarks


Please join us on Thursday, April 16 from 12 p.m. to 4 p.m. in the Rayburn House Office Building on Capitol Hill. Lunch will be served. Additional speakers may join the program and updates will follow.

RSVP:
Please RSVP to Hannah Suh at hsuh@cnas.org or 202-292-4194.

Dr. Patrick Cronin
Senior Advisor and Senior Director,
Asia-Pacific Security Program
Center for a New American Security

The Center for a New American Security (CNAS) is an independent and nonpartisan research institution that develops strong, pragmatic and principled national security and defense policies. CNAS leads efforts to help inform and prepare the national security leaders of today and tomorrow.

Guam-US-Asia Security Alliance (GUASA) is a Guam-based 501(c)(3) tax-exempt non-profit, non-partisan membership corporation, comprised of people and organizations concerned with the security of all who live in the Western Pacific and along the Pacific Rim.



Speaker and panelist bios:
KELLY E. MAGSAMEN

Kelly Magsamen is the Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Asian and Pacific Security Affairs with responsibility for defense and security policy in the Asia and Pacific region.  
Prior to joining the Department of Defense, Ms. Magsamen served on the National Security Staff (NSS) in various positions, most immediately as Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Strategic Planning on the National Security Staff from 2012-2014.  During her years at NSS, she also served as Director for Iran from 2008-2011, and then as Director and Senior Advisor for Middle East Reform in the wake of the Arab Spring from 2011-2012.

Ms. Magsamen began her government career as a Presidential Management Fellow and civil servant at the State Department, focusing on Iraq assistance issues, and later served as Special Assistant and Chief of Staff to the Counselor to the Department of State, devoting much of her time to Afghanistan policy. In addition to her government experience, she has also worked in private sector consulting, focusing on the Middle East.  Ms. Magsamen received her Bachelors degree in International Relations from American University, and her Masters degree in Strategic Studies from Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies.

SENATOR JOHN MCCAIN

John McCain entered the Naval Academy in June of 1954. He served in the United States Navy until 1981.  His military honors include the Silver Star, Bronze Star, Legion of Merit, Purple Heart, and the Distinguished Flying Cross. He was first elected to the U.S. House of Representatives from the First District of Arizona in 1982.  After two terms in the House, he was elected to the United States Senate in 1986. He was the Republican Party’s nominee for president in the 2008 election. He currently serves as Chairman of the Senate Committee on Armed Services and also serves on the Senate’s committees for Indian Affairs and Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs.

REPRESENTATIVE MATTHEW SALMON

Representative Matt Salmon (AZ-5) graduated from Arizona State University with a bachelor’s degree in English literature and an MPA from Brigham Young University.  In 1990, Mr. Salmon was elected to the Arizona State Senate, where he served from 1991 until 1995.  During this time, he served as Assistant Majority Leader and Chairman of the Rules Committee.  In 1994, Representative Salmon was elected to the U.S. House of Representatives, where he served three terms.  In 2000, he remained faithful to a self-imposed term limit pledge and retired his seat. 

As the only Member of Congress fluent in Mandarin, along with his position on the International Relations Committee, Representative Salmon led multiple U.S. delegations to China, one of

which secured the release of political prisoner Song Yongyi.  After the passage of the Affordable Healthcare Act and the expansion of government regulation during an economic crisis, he again answered the call to serve.  In 2012 and 2014, Arizonans re-elected him to serve in the U.S. House of Representatives.  Representative Salmon was appointed by his peers to serve on the house Committee on Foreign Affairs and serves as Chairman of the Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific.  He also serves on the House Committee on Education and the Workforce.

REPRESENTATIVE MADELEINE Z. BORDALLO

A lifetime public servant, in 2003 Congresswoman Madeleine Z. Bordallo became the first woman to represent Guam in the U.S. House of Representatives. Ms. Bordallo brings to Congress over forty years of experience in public service in the executive and legislative branches of
the Government of Guam and numerous non-governmental organizations. The 114th Congress is Ms. Bordallo’s seventh term. Ms. Bordallo will continue to serve on the House Armed Services
Committee and the House Committee on Natural Resources. She was reappointed the Ranking Democrat of the Subcommittee on Readiness in the House Armed Services Committee for the 114th Congress, and is also a member of the Subcommittee on Seapower and Projection Forces.

In the House Committee on Natural Resources, Ms. Bordallo sits on the Subcommittee on Indian, Insular, and Alaskan Affairs as well as the Subcommittee on Water, Power, and Oceans.  In addition to her committee responsibilities, Ms. Bordallo will serve as the vice chair of the Congressional Asian Pacific American Caucus (CAPAC) and the co-chair of the Congressional China Caucus and the Congressional Long Range Strike Caucus.

Congresswoman Bordallo began her public career with local radio and television broadcaster KUAM in 1954. Her involvement in the community has also been extensive, with Bordallo founding the Guam Council of Women's Clubs, the Guam Symphony Society, Y Inetnon Famalao’an (Women for Service), and the Marianas Association for Persons with Disabilities. She was also a past President of the Federation of Asia Pacific Women's Associations (FAWA).

Ms. Bordallo was introduced to public service through her husband Ricky, who served as Governor of Guam from 1975-1978 and 1983-1986. As First Lady, she was a strong advocate of promoting the indigenous Chamorro culture and the arts, both of which are lifelong passions. Between her husband's two terms as governor, Ms. Bordallo became the first woman from the Democratic Party to serve as a Guam Senator. She was a member of the 16th, 19th, 20th, 21st, and 22nd Guam Legislatures. After Governor Bordallo passed away in 1990, Ms. Bordallo decided to continue her husband’s legacy. She ran for governor in 1990 and won the nomination of the Democratic Party. Although she was not successful in 1990, in 1994, Ms. Bordallo teamed up with then-Senator Carl Gutierrez and was elected as Guam’s first woman Lieutenant Governor as part of the Gutierrez-Bordallo gubernatorial ticket. She served two consecutive terms as Lieutenant Governor during which she championed the cause of island beautification as a way to enhance Guam's tourism based economy.

JUAN CARLOS BENITEZ

Juan Carlos Benitez is a Principal on the Conference Team Committee of the Guam-U.S.-Asia Security Alliance (GUASA) and is also an attorney and lobbyist based in Guam.  Mr. Benitez is also known as a key player and fundraiser in the Republican Party and a leader in the Republican Hispanic community.  A native of Puerto Rico and first-hand participant in U.S. territory management, he was formerly the lead U.S. lobbyist for the government of Guam. He served as one of the leading international relations specialists at Cassidy & Associates.  With his depth of knowledge and broad network of contacts, Mr. Benitez has became a tremendous strategic partner for his clients in designing and implementing successful lobbying strategies to further their needs in Washington and Guam. 

Prior to Cassidy, Mr. Benitez served the Bush Administration, as Special Counsel for Immigration-Related Unfair Employment Practices after being nominated by President George W. Bush and confirmed unanimously by the Senate in 2001. As Special Counsel, Mr. Benitez was the highest-ranking Hispanic presidential appointee at the Justice Department. Mr. Benitez also practiced governmental affairs as Of Counsel to the law firm of Long Aldridge and Norman, where he was part of the Immigration and Labor practice group as well as an integral member of the Government Affair practice group. As Legislative Director for the Office of the Governor of Puerto Rico, Mr. Benitez was responsible for the development and implementation of Puerto Rico's congressional and executive lobbying strategy.  Mr. Benitez was also the representative for the Governor before U.S. Congress and all U.S. federal government agencies. Thanks to Mr. Benitez's leadership the Government of Puerto Rico was able to increase the amount of Federal funds it received from Congress to the highest amount it had ever received.

DR. THOMAS BICKFORD

Thomas J. Bickford, Ph.D. is an Asia analyst in CNA's China Security Affairs Group. At CNA, his research has focused on Chinese maritime strategy, Chinese national security policy, and China’s relations with its neighbors. His previous work includes several articles and book chapters on Chinese civil-military relations, professional military education, and internal security.

Before joining CNA, he was an associate professor at the University of Wisconsin-Oshkosh, where he taught international relations and Chinese politics. He was also an associate director of the Wisconsin Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies.

Bickford holds a Ph.D. in political science from the University of California, Berkeley, an M.S. in international studies from the London School of Economics, and a B.A. in East Asian studies from the University of Chicago. He has also studied in Taiwan and Hong Kong and has conducted extensive field research in China.

SHAWN BRIMLEY

Shawn Brimley is Executive Vice President and Director of Studies at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) where he oversees the center’s research and serves on the executive leadership team. Mr. Brimley rejoined CNAS after serving in the Obama Administration from February 2009 to October 2012 most recently as Director for Strategic Planning on the National Security Council staff at the White House. He also served as Special Advisor to the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy at the Pentagon from 2009 to 2011, where he focused on the 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review, overseas basing and posture, and long-range strategy development. In 2012, he was awarded the Secretary of Defense Medal for Outstanding Public Service and in 2010 he was awarded the Officer of the Secretary of Defense Medal for Exceptional Public Service.

Mr. Brimley was a founding member of CNAS in 2007 and was the inaugural recipient of the 1Lt. Andrew Bacevich Jr. Memorial Fellowship. He has also worked at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Mr. Brimley has been published in a variety of venues, including the New York Times, Foreign Affairs and Foreign Policy. Educated at Queen’s University and George Washington University, his research interests include U.S. national security strategy and defense policy, the impact of emerging technology on U.S. strategic choices, and the evolution of America’s global diplomatic and defense posture. Mr. Brimley is a term member of the Council on Foreign Relations. He lives in Washington with his wife Marjorie and their two children.

DR. PATRICK CRONIN

Patrick M. Cronin is a Senior Advisor and Senior Director of the Asia-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS). Previously, he was the Senior Director of the Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) at the National Defense University, where he simultaneously oversaw the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs.

Dr. Cronin has a rich and diverse background in both Asian-Pacific security and U.S. defense, foreign and development policy.  Prior to leading INSS, Dr. Cronin served as the Director of  Studies at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).  At the IISS, he also served as Editor of the Adelphi Papers and as the Executive Director of the Armed Conflict Database.  Before joining IISS, Dr. Cronin was Senior Vice President and Director of Research at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

In 2001, Dr. Cronin was confirmed by the United States Senate to the third-ranking position at the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).  While serving as Assistant Administrator for Policy and Program Coordination, Dr. Cronin also led the interagency task force that helped design the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC).

From 1998 until 2001, Dr. Cronin served as Director of Research at the U.S. Institute of Peace. Prior to that, he spent seven years at the National Defense University, first arriving at INSS in 1990 as a Senior Research Professor covering Asian and long-range security issues.  He was the founding Executive Editor of Joint Force Quarterly, and subsequently became both Deputy Director and Director of Research at the Institute.  He received the Army's Meritorious Civilian Service Award upon his departure from NDU in 1997.

He has also been a senior analyst at the Center for Naval Analyses, a U.S. Naval Reserve Intelligence officer, and an analyst with the Congressional Research Service and SRI International.  He was Associate Editor of Strategic Review and worked as an undergraduate at the Miami Herald and the Fort Lauderdale News.

Dr. Cronin has taught at Georgetown University’s Security Studies Program, The Johns Hopkins University’s Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), and the University of Virginia’s Woodrow Wilson Department of Government.

PAUL GIARRA

Paul Giarra leads Global Strategies & Transformation, a national defense and strategic planning consultancy. He is a thought leader, a proven strategic planner, and a creative concept developer who combines substance with process. His in-depth analysis and national level strategic policy formulation; broad historical knowledge of global regions and current security politics; extensive international expertise and reputation; and technical knowledge of change mechanisms, security futures, and defense transformation underpin his extensive wargaming, writing for publication, creative development of plausible future scenarios, and concept development and experimentation. A natural collaborator and team leader, he maintains especially broad contacts throughout the security thought leadership community, in the Regional Combatant Commands, in Asia, and in NATO. He also is a qualified and experienced program manager of significant projects and staffs.
 
DR. JERRY HENDRIX

Jerry Hendrix is a Senior Fellow and the Director of the Defense Strategies and Assessments Program at the Center for a New American Security.

A retired Captain in the United States Navy, his staff assignments include tours with the Chief of Naval Operation’s Executive Panel (N00K), where his efforts centered on Homeland Defense, Naval Aviation, and Navy Missile Defense, the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy (Force Development) where he served as Executive Secretary for the Irregular Warfare Quadrennial Defense Review cell, and the OSD Office of Net Assessment where he assisted the Director on topics related to forecasting future capabilities and alternative security environments.  From 2011-2012 he served as the Director and Designated Federal Officer of the Secretary of the Navy’s Advisory Panel.  In this position he assisted the Advisory Panel in their deliberations on the Department’s energy policy and its approach to the Asia Pacific region.  He also contributed to the 2012 Department Posture Statement to the Congress.  Following the fall, 2011 Navy Inspector General’s Report on the state of the Naval History and Heritage Command, he was verbally ordered by the Secretary to assume the position of Director of Naval History.

Hendrix previously served as the Navy Fellow to the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs at Harvard University where he focused on the use of naval power as an instrument of coercive diplomacy.  He has been awarded a Bachelor Degree in Political Science from Purdue University, Masters Degrees from the Naval Postgraduate School (National Security Affairs) and Harvard University (History) and received his doctorate from King’s College, London (War Studies).   His awards include two Legion of Merit awards, and the Defense Superior Service Medal.  He has twice been named the Samuel Eliot Morison Scholar by the Navy Historical Center in Washington, DC, and was also the Center’s 2005 Rear Admiral John D. Hays Fellow. He also held the Marine Corps’ General Lemuel C. Shepherd, Jr. Fellowship. He authored the book Theodore Roosevelt’s Naval Diplomacy and received a number of awards, including the United States Naval Institute’s Author of the Year and the Navy League’s Alfred T. Mahan Award for Literary Achievement.

SHIRLEY KAN

Shirley Kan was a Specialist in Asian Security Affairs in the Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division with the Congressional Research Service (CRS), a non-partisan agency of the U.S. Congress.  At CRS from 1990 to 2015, Shirley Kan wrote policy analysis and provided other non-partisan legislative support to Congress as a Specialist in Asian Security Affairs.  She has specialized in national security interests in U.S. policies concerning the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and concerning Taiwan. 
 
Kan's writings discuss policy concerns that include the challenges of weapons nonproliferation, counter-terrorism, military-to-military contacts, the PLA’s modernization and missile buildup, U.S. security assistance for Taiwan’s self-defense, the “one China” policy for supporting U.S. interests in the Taiwan Strait, and the defense buildup on Guam.  Ms. Kan participated in the Army War College’s Commandant’s National Security Program in July 2012.  During the Taiwan Strait Crisis of 1995-1996, she directly supported the Defense Attaché at the Embassy in Beijing, for which she received a Department of Defense Special Achievement Award.  During the summer of 1989 at the Consulate-General in Shenyang, she reported on the pro-democracy movement and political-military crisis in the PRC while serving as the Political Intern.  Ms. Kan graduated cum laude from the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University in Washington, DC, with a Bachelor of Science in Foreign Service in 1988 and from the graduate school of the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor in 1990. 

DR. THOMAS MAHNKEN

Thomas G. Mahnken is a Senior Research Professor and the Director of the Advanced Strategy Program at the Philip Merrill Center for Strategic Studies, as well as the Jerome E. Levy Chair of Economic Geography and National Security at the U.S. Naval War College. From 2006 to 2009, he served as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Policy Planning. Between 1997 and 2006, he served as a Professor of Strategy at the U.S. Naval War College. From 2004 to 2006 he was a Visiting Fellow at the Merrill Center at SAIS. During the 2003-04 academic year he served as the Acting Director of the SAIS Strategic Studies Program.

He is currently serving on the staff of the Congressionally-mandated National Defense Panel and served on the staff of the Quadrennial Defense Review Independent Panel, Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction, in the Defense Department’s Office of Net Assessment, and as a member of the Gulf War Air Power Survey. His most recent books are Strategic Studies: A Reader (Routledge, 2014) and Competitive Strategies for the 21st Century: Theory, History, and Practice (Stanford University Press, 2012). He holds a MA and Ph.D. in international affairs from SAIS and BA degrees in history and international relations (with highest honors) from the University of Southern California. He is a Commander in the U.S. Navy Reserve and a recipient of the Secretary of Defense Medal for Outstanding Public Service.

BRYAN MCGRATH

Bryan McGrath is the founding Managing Director of The FerryBridge Group LLC (FBG), a niche consultancy specializing in naval and national security issues, including national and military strategy, strategic planning, executive communications, strategic communications and emerging technologies.  He is also the Deputy Director of the Center for American Seapower at the Hudson Institute.

Prior to starting FBG, Bryan founded a national security consulting line of business for Delex Systems of Herndon, VA, where he directly supported a number of senior clients in the Navy and the Army.  Additionally, he provided critical insight on Navy policy and acquisition preferences to commercial clients, including major defense contractors and small technology firms negotiating the "post-earmarks" era.   

A retired Naval Officer, Bryan spent 21 years on active duty including a tour in command of USS BULKELEY (DDG 84), a guided-missile destroyer homeported in Norfolk, Virginia.  In command, he received the "Admiral Elmo Zumwalt Award for Inspirational Leadership" from the Surface Navy Association and his ship earned the USS ARIZONA Memorial Trophy signifying its selection as the Fleet's most combat-ready warship.  His final duties ashore included serving as Team Lead and Primary Author of the US Navy's 2007 Maritime Strategy A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower.

Bryan earned a BA in History from the University of Virginia in 1987, and an MA in Political Science (Congressional Studies) from The Catholic University of America. He is a graduate of the Naval War College.

DR. ELY RATNER

Dr. Ely Ratner is Senior Fellow and Deputy Director of the Asia-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS). Prior to joining CNAS he served on the China Desk at the State Department as the lead political officer covering China’s external relations in Asia. He has also worked as an Associate Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation and as a Professional Staff Member on the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Dr. Ratner has testified as an expert witness on Asian security affairs before the U.S. Congress and the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. His commentary and research have appeared in Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, The Washington Post, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Quarterly, The National Interest, Journal of Conflict Resolution, International Studies Quarterly and Chinese Journal of International Politics, among others. He received his Ph.D. in Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley and his B.A. from the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University, where he graduated Magna Cum Laude and Phi Beta Kappa.
 




Friday, April 3, 2015

Announcing publication of the Final Report of the 2014 GUASA Roundtable

The GUASA Roundtable 2, Asia Pacific Security: Regional Commons, Sovereign Interests, successfully concluded October 17, 2014 at the Nikko Hotel Guam on Tumon Bay. The video and audio has been reviewed and transcribed, and at last the Final Report has been pieced together by participating experts Timothy A. Walton and Paul S. Giarra.   GUASA is grateful to them and other participants, including Bob Mihalik and Dr. Patrick Cronin, for their long hours and hard labor to bring this Final Report to fruition. 

GUASA especially mentions the critical contribution and sponsorship of Docomo Pacific for providing the recording and transcription services that made this report possible.

The Final Report of GUASA Roundtable 2, entitled "The Rebalance at a Critical Point", after the Keynote Address of the same title given by Honorable Guam Congresswoman Madeleine Z. Bodallo, contains the substance of the first ever conversation of Pacific Asia security experts, hosted and held on neighboring sovereign American soil in Asia, on the Asian side of the International Date Line, in the middle of the Western Pacific Ocean. Participating experts came from the Republic of Korea, the Republic of China (Taiwan), the Republic of Vietnam, the Republic of the Philippines, Malayasia, Australia, Japan and the United States of America.





It is GUASA's intent that this will not be the last time America hosts and meets its neighbors in Asia, on its home ground.  As a senior Japanese expert commented, "I wish I had known more about Guam ten years ago, as I would have encouraged more alliance cooperation centered on Guam."

The 2014 GUASA Roundtable 2 Final Report (pdf) is available for download at this link.




A milestone in the evolution of the US-Japan Alliance

Dr. Patrick M. Cronin is Senior Advisor and Senior Director of the Asia-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security. He was a Keynote Speaker and panelist for GUASA's 2013 Roundtable, and an organizer and panelist for GUASA's 2014 Roundtable. He is the author of the following article appearing in The National Interest online magazine, and has authored many other articles for that publication. Please read the whole article at the link; excerpts are related below.

A New Type of U.S.-Japan Relations
At 9:30 AM on April 28, 1952 the U.S.-Japan alliance stood up as the U.S. occupation of Japan stood down [4]. At the end of this month, the U.S.-Japan alliance will step up as Japan steps out as a more normal state, capable of both defending itself and others.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s address to a joint session of Congress on April 29 should go down in history as a day of glory, not of infamy. Some serious critics will remain dissatisfied over perceived historical revisionism. Yet the fact will remain that the biggest antagonists in the Pacific War have forged a prosperous postwar system and a vigorous alliance. When the Prime Minister speaks to a full house of Senators and Representatives, he can be expected to offer humble remorse for the past, quiet pride in Japan’s remarkable seven-decade-long contribution to global order, and a roadmap for how the alliance can perpetuate a rules-based system well into the 21st century.

The latest evolution of the alliance will be encapsulated in new defense guidelines issued on the eve of the oration, which will be delivered in English. To be sure, the guidelines document itself will be unremarkable. Twenty-five pages of prose written by a bureaucratic committee describing allied roles and missions are not meant to be Shakespearean. Those seeking a coherent statement of strategic clarity will also be disappointed. Nonetheless, the guidelines will provide a gateway to an unprecedented degree of alliance capacity, comprehensiveness, and coordination.

In short, the new guidelines will mark a milestone along the path of converting a relationship between a victor and the vanquished into a mature security partnership between the world’s two richest democracies, capable of acting swiftly and in concert to address a full array of contingencies, from humanitarian disaster to war.

Although Japan surrendered to the United States on September 2, 1945, peace between the former foes did not become official until April 28, 1952, when the San Francisco Peace Treaty [6] signed the previous September took effect. This original alliance agreement was necessarily provisional, recognizing that Japan had been disarmed and was therefore incapable of exercising effective right of self-defense.

Eight years alter, the 1960 U.S.-Japan treaty (formally, the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between Japan and the United States of America took into account a more equal partnership, albeit one in which the division of labor was complimentary but utterly different (viz., Japanese bases for American defense).

The 1960 treaty is a model of concision and can be summarized in a single paragraph. The allies pledge to uphold the United Nations Charter, to settle international disputes peacefully, and to refrain from “the use of force against the territorial integrity of political independence of any state.” Both vow to strengthen “free institutions” and promote “stability and well-being.” “By means of continuous and effective self-help and mutual aid [the allies] will maintain and develop…their capacities to resist armed attack.” They will consult regularly “whenever the security of Japan or international peace and security in the Far East is threatened.” The treaty’s famous Article V clause stipulates that each “recognizes that an armed attack…in the territories under the administration of Japan would be dangerous…and declares that it would act to meet the common danger….” Finally, U.S. forces would gain access to land, air, and naval bases, the terms of which would be governed by a separate agreement.

The alliance framework has held up all these decades, but periodic guidelines have been drafted to help define the roles and missions of the two allies.

Yet the guidelines are more about enabling operational capability, not strategy. Even so, it is possible to see both continuity and change in the third set of guidelines to be issued at a 2+2 meeting just before the summit meeting between President Barack Obama and Prime Minister Abe in late April.

The main points of continuity are likely to be that the defense of Japan remains at the core of the alliance. Japan under Abe is not looking for conflict but rather grasping for more security in light of a rapidly changing security environment. The United States, for its part, wants to reassure Japan as to its security, as a means to preserving and adapting a stable and prosperous region. In addition, Japan will remain committed to a basically defensive posture as well as its three non-nuclear principles of not possessing, not producing, and not permitting the introduction of nuclear weapons on its soil.

But while the fundamentals remain unchanged, the scope and depth of the alliance’s operational capacity will enter a new era. A common operational system will be established with new technology backed up by political understanding. The technology involves interoperable and state-of-the-art command, control, communications and computers and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (C4ISR) systems. The political dimension emerges from the lesson of the 1997 guidelines. A bilateral coordination mechanism to deal with a crisis was never enacted in part because of the potentially escalatory signal it might send to other actors such as North Korea.

The new guidelines will make a common operational coordination system part of the daily regimen. This is essential for dealing with the ongoing grey zone challenges around the Senkaku Islands (which the Chinese call the Diaoyu Islands). But the bilateral coordination mechanism is also meant to be allow “seamless” operations whether the alliance if facing another 3/11 disaster, a 9/11-type major terror attack, or military conflict in the East China Sea or over North Korea. That should ease the ability to pivot from a homeland security to a national security crisis to a whole-of-government or even whole-of-society response.

Another crucial change in these guidelines is the provision that will set in motion further growth in cooperation over how to deal with challenges in cyber and outer space. More questions than answers remain in these areas, including what kind of response would be triggered if one ally or the other found its computer networks or satellites under attack. But by underlining the mounting significance of these domains, the allies signal their determination to make defense cooperation in these areas a high priority in the years ahead.

Of course a common strategy and common interests are necessary but insufficient bases for preserving an effective alliance. Alliances also take constant attention to produce value. This is why some have likened alliance management to gardening. The new guidelines mark a sea change in alliance intent and organization, but they will only be as successful as the day-to-day follow through. This includes, in Japan, following through on the critical legal basis for Japan’s proactive policies. At this juncture, by the end of the summer the Diet seems likely to pass the dozen or so pieces of law necessary to put teeth into the Prime Minister’s plan. That will allow Japan the legal right of collective-self defense, at least under specified conditions, as well as more expansive alliance integration—for instance, the right of the Maritime Self Defense Force to conduct joint patrols out to the South China Sea. In the United States, it means not just using the bilateral coordination mechanism to play point defense on territorial disputes, but using it as a basis to catalyze wider and deeper strategic discussion. It also means working to bring new actors to the table of alliance discussions, from coast guard and law enforcement to those with interests and responsibilities in cyber and outer space.

Meanwhile, as we have seen during the previous nearly-two-decade-long periods between previous sets of guidelines, the world and regional security landscape will not stand still. The process of adapting to emerging challenges is a constant imperative. Nonetheless, the ascent and trajectory of the alliance from April 28, 1952 to that of April 28, 2015 is nothing short of astonishing.
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